Sunday, November 25, 2012



Welcome to NHL GOLD. This system is a three game chase system based on teams winning/losing streaks. It is broken into two versions, Teams who win three games in a row S/U (V1), and teams who lose three games in a row S/U and ATS (V2). Needless to say, since this system is performance based, the chance of having both sides of a game being an official play at the same time does exist, and does happen on occasion. The v1 has been significantly stronger than the v2, each, however, only having one losing season thus far. When posted, the plays will be listed as “v2” for the plays that correspond to v2. If “v2” is not posted next to the game, assume it as a v1. A description of each system and a back test is listed below.

V1 System (3 wins in a row S/U)
The v1 is based on teams winning streaks. The puck lines don’t matter while qualifying a team to be a play. Look for teams who have won three straight games. Once you find them, you will FADE this team (bet on their opponent) in a three game chase for the next three games. If the team you are betting on is even money, or a favorite, play the M/L. If they are a dog, play the P/L. The final lines will be used for stats results and for determining M/L or P/L.
If your team wins the first bet ((A) bet)), the series is over. If it loses, you will proceed to a (B) bet, wagering the amount you lost in (A) plus whatever profit you were trying to achieve in (A). If (B) bet loses, your (C) bet will be losses from (A) + (B) + profit. If (C) loses, the series is over and we take a loss. Hockey betting can be one of the most expensive sports to lose a 3 game chase, so adjust your wagers accordingly. Generally a loss is around 20 units, many are lower, and some are larger (could be upwards of 30 units). There are generally 150-170 plays in the v1 system, and from my backtesting I have noticed that it is usually around 9 losses before we take a negative for the season. This has only happened once.

Special Rules for v1:
1) Never play the first three games of the season. Do not start counting team’s wins until their fourth game played.
2) Never play a winning streak around the All Star or Olympic breaks unless all three games of the chase are before the break or all three games of the chase are after the break. The winning streak to qualify the teams can span the break, but ALL the actual games we are betting on must all be BEFORE or AFTER the break. E.g.: A team qualifies near the all star break with three wins in a row. The team has two remaining games before the break. This team will NOT be a play because all three of the chase games were not before the break. E.g.: A team qualifies by winning their last two games before the break, and their first game after the break. This will be a play because ALL three chase games will be after the break.
3) If a team has a 6, 9, 12, 15, … game winning streak, there will be multiple plays during that streak. Each three in a row will be a play, so if a team has a 12 game winning streak, there will be four different chases along the way. These chases will never overlap, because the first one will always be concluded by the start of the next one.
4) NEVER START A CHASE IF IT CANNOT BE CONCLUDED. If a team wins three in a row, and does not have at least three remaining games on their schedule, do NOT play the series.
5) The way you play head-head games it at your discretion, but the system will count and play ALL qualified teams, unless they qualify at the same time, and their potential (C) bets will be against each other, we may opt not to play. I will help you recognize these with notes on the updates.

V2 System (3 losses in a row S/U and ATS)
The v2 system is a little different than the v1, the bet structure is the same and we will still be using, however, there is a little more to it than just losing three straight. Find teams that have lost 3 straight games. Next, make sure these teams have also lost three straight ATS. This means that a favorite or even play will only have to lose the game, but a dog team has to lose by 2 or more goals. This info will be determined from the final lines at Once a team qualifies, you will bet on that team to get a WIN in one of their next three games, same three game chase applies. So for the v2, we are betting ON the team, as opposed to the v1 where we are betting AGAINST the team.

Special rules for v2
1) You will use ATS as well as S/U to qualify teams.
2) Never play the first two games of the season, it is OK to start with game 3.
3) The All Star and Olympic breaks rule is the same as v1.
4) The winning streaks rule is the same as v1, provided all the games meet the ATS requirement.
5) Never start a chase if it cannot be concluded.
6) Head to head games it at your discretion, but all games will count in system..

The v2 has significantly less plays than the v1, mainly because of the ATS requirement. It will take less losses than the v1 to be negative for the season. This has only happened once so far, 6 losses for a net of (-40 units). The same year the v1 was +29, so the overall effect was (-11 units). The v1 has only had one losing season (-18 units) but that was also the year that v2 only did +6 units. The other years, the two in combination did phenomenally well. If you were to pick one over the other, I would go with the v1. But it seems that even the years that one happens to lose, the other one picks it up some. The years that both teams win, they win big. Below is a backtest through the 2005-06 season. I have listed them separately and combined, so you can see how they did on their own and together. The results are accurate and can be checked by anyone.

I in no way guarantee that this season or any other future season will produce the same results as posted below. This is merely a backtest of previous performance, and shows the increase of probability that it will happen again. It doesn’t mean it will. Please do not bet above your means. I am in no way selling anything to anybody, profiting off of their wagers, or twisting their arm to place a bet. I am merely providing information that can easily be verified by doing your own backtest. Everything is laid out here, and there are NO GUARANTEES when it comes to sports wagering.

NHL GOLD backtest for v1 System

V1 backtest

2010-11 (161-3)
A) 105-59 
B) 44-15
C) 12-3
Losses: LAK (-23.8 ), NAS (-26.82), ATL (-17.94)

Total profit: +92.44 units

2009-10 (158-4)
A) 104-58 
B) 40-18
C) 14-4
Losses: LAK (-11.82), PHO (-19.70), WAS (-22.83), WAS (-18.20) 

Total profit: +85.45 units

2008-09 (150-7)
A) 101-56 
B) 37-19
C) 12-7
Losses: BOS (-16.16), CHI (-19.2), CHI (-23.96), DET (-9.89), DET (-20.69), PIT (-16.55), ATL (-20.47)

Total profit: +23.08 units

2007-08 (160-9)
A) 113-56 
B) 39-17
C) 8-9
Losses: ANA (-25.01), CAL (-12.35), DAL (-18.5), DET (-20.21), NJ (-27.14), NYI (-12.73), PIT (-21.95), 
SJ(-16.13), WAS(-20.8)

Total profit: -14.82 units

2006-07 (156-4)
A) 100-60 
B) 39-21
C) 17-4
Losses: CAL (-18.13), CAL (-15.48), NAS (-14.96), PHO (-18.79)

Total profit: +88.64 units

2005-06 (159-7)
A) 108-58 
B) 29-29
C) 22-7
Losses: BUF (-14.09), CBS (-32.32), DET (10.54), DET(-18.65), NAS(-28.37), NYR(-14.07), OTT(-11.51)

Total profit: +29.45 units

V1 Grand Total +304.24 units (avg +50.71 units/season)

________________________________________ ___________________________

V2 backtest

2010-11 (86-3)
A) 52-37 
B) 25-12
C) 9-3
Losses: COL (-9.85), NJ (-29.58), WAS (-23.64)

Total profit: +22.93 units

2009-10 (79-1)
A) 56-24
B) 12-12
C) 11-1
Losses: EDM (-19.7) 

Total profit: +59.3 units

2008-09 (70-1)
A) 48-23
B) 15-8
C) 7-1
Losses: COL (-12.71)

Total profit: +57.29 units

2007-08 (87-4)
A) 52-39
B) 28-11
C) 7-4
Losses: ANA (-25.39), DET (-20.93), NYI (-15.33), OTT (-18.89)

Total profit: +6.46 units

2006-07 (84-2)
A) 59-27
B) 17-10
C) 8-2
Losses: EDM (-23.55), MON (-16.62)

Total profit: +43.83 units

2005-06 (65-6)
A) 40-31
B) 18-13
C) 7-6
Losses: CBS (-14.57), EDM (-20.33), STL (-28.44), STL (-9.20), WAS (-9.10), ATL (-20.14)

Total profit: -40.78 units

V2 Grand Total +149.03 units (avg +24.84 units/season)

________________________________________ ___________________________ 

Both systems combined

2010-11 (247-6)
A) 156-95 
B) 68-27
C) 21-6

Total profit: +115.37 units

2009-10 (237-5)
A) 160-82
B) 52-30
C) 25-5

Total profit: +144.75 units

2008-09 (220-8)
A) 149-79
B) 52-27
C) 19-8

Total profit: +80.37 units

2007-08 (247-13)
A) 165-95
B) 67-28
C) 15-13

Total profit: -8.36 units

2006-07 (240-6)
A) 159-87
B) 56-31
C) 25-6

Total profit: +132.47 units

2005-06 (224-13)
A) 148-89
B) 47-42
C) 29-13

Total profit: -11.33 units

Combined Grand Total +453.27 units (avg +75.54 units/season)

No comments:

Post a Comment